- 1st half - Masonic Secrets: Analysis of the Secret Teachings of All Ages by Manly P. hall (part A)
- 2nd half - Analysis of Organizational Communication in a Global Economy
Once you find a stock you think will give you the kind of return you are looking for, you are ready to deal with the matter of timing your investment. As long as the prospects for the market and the economy are positive, the time may be right to invest in stocks. On the other hand, there are a couple of conditions when investing in stocks does not make any sense at all. In particular, do not invest in stocks if:
Why Invest in Stocks?
There three basic reasons for investing in common stock: (1) to use the stock as a warehouse of value, (2) to accumulate capital, and (3) to provide a source of income. Storage of value is important to all investors, because nobody likes to lose money. However, some investors are more concerned about it than others and therefore put safety of principal first in their stock selection process. These investors are more quality-conscious and tend to gravitate toward blue chips and other non-speculative shares. Accumulation of capital generally is an important goal to individuals with long-term investment horizons. These investors use the capital gains and dividends that stocks provide to build up their wealth. Some use growth stocks for such purposes; others do it with income shares; still others use a little of both. Finally, some people use stocks as a source of income; to them, a dependable flow of dividends is essential. High-yielding, good quality income shares are usually their preferred investment vehicle.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Stock Ownership Ownership of common stock has both advantages and disadvantages. Its advantages are threefold. First, the potential returns, in the form of both dividend income and price appreciation, can be quite substantial. Second, many stocks are actively traded stocks; thus they are a highly liquid form of investment---meaning they can be quickly bought and sold. Finally, they do not involve any direct management (or unusual management problems) and market/company information is usually widely published and readily available. Risk, the problem of timing purchases and sales, and the uncertainty of dividends are all disadvantages of common stock ownership. Although potential common stock ownership. Even though careful selection of stocks may reduce the amount of risk to which the investor is exposed, the risk-return trade-off cannot be completely eliminated. In other words, high returns on common stock are not guaranteed; they may or may not occur depending on numerous economic, industry, and company factors. The timing of purchases and sales is closely related to risk. Many investors purchase a stock, hold it for a period of time during which the price drops and then sell it below the original purchase price---that is, at a loss. The proper strategy, of course, is to buy low and sell high, but the problem of predicting price movements makes it difficult to implement such a plan. Be Sure to Plow Back Your Earnings Unless you are living off the income, the basic investment objective with stocks is the same as it is with any other security: to earn an attractive, fully compounded rate of return. This requires regular reinvestment of dividend income. And there is no better way to accomplish such reinvestment than through a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). The basic investment philosophy at work here is that if the company is good enough to invest in, it is good enough to reinvest in. In a dividend reinvestment plan, shareholders can sign up to have their cash dividends automatically reinvested in additional shares of the company's common stock---in essence, it is like taking your cash dividends in the form of more shares of common stock. The idea is to put your money to work by building up your investment in the stock. Such an approach can have a tremendous impact on your investment decision over time, as seen in Exhibit 1.
*SOURCE: PERSONAL FINANCIAL PLANNING, 10TH ED., 2005, LAWRENCE J. GITMAN, MICHAEL D. JOEHNK,, PGS. 519-522*
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So let's turn our attention to the expected future performance of a stock. The idea is to assess the outlook for the stock, thereby, gaining some insight about the benefits to be derived from investing in it. Of particular concern are future dividends and share price behavior. As a rules, it does not make much sense to go out more than 2 or 3 years because the accuracy of most forecasts begins to deteriorate rapidly after that point. Thus, using a 3-year investment horizon, you would want to forecast annual dividends per share for each of the next three years, plus the future price of the stock at the end of the 3-year holding period (obviously, if the price of the stock is projected to go up over time, you will take some capital gains). You can try to generate these forecasts yourself or you can look to a publication like Value Line to obtain projections (Value Line projects dividends and share prices 3 to 5 years into the future). Once you have projected dividends and share price, you can use the approximate yield equation, or a hand-held calculator, to determine the expected return from the investment.
To see how that can be done, consider the common shares of Medtronic, Inc., the world's largest manufacturer of implantable biomedical devices. According to Value Line, the company has very strong financials; its sales have been growing at around 15 or 16 percent per year for the first five years, it has a net profit margin of more than 20 percent, and an ROE of around 20 percent (2005). Thus, historically, the company has performed very well and is definitely a market leader in its field. In June of 2003, the stock was trading at around $49 a share and was paying annual dividends at the rate of about 30 cents a share. Value Line was projecting dividends to go up about 58 cents a share within the next 3 to 5 years, they were also estimating the price of the stock could rise to as high as $80 a share within 3 years. Using these Value Line projections and given current dividends (in 2003) of 30 cents a share, we could expect dividends of, say, 36 cents a share next year (2004), 47 cents a share the year after (2005), and 58 cents a share in 2006---assuming, of course, that dividends do in fact grow as estimated by Value Line. Now, because the approximate yield equation uses "average annual current income" as one of the inputs, let's use the midpoint of our projected dividends (47 cents a share) as a proxy for average annual dividends. In addition, given this stock is currently trading at $49 a share, has a projected future price of $80 a share, and we have a 3-year investment horizon, we find our expected return as follows: Thus, if Medtronic stock performs as expected, it should provide us with a return of around 17 or 18 percent. In today's market, that would be a very attractive return, and one that very likely will exceed our required rate of return (which probably should be around 12 to 15 percent). If that is the case, then this stock very definitely SHOULD be considered a viable investment candidate. According to our standards, the stock is currently undervalued and thus, should be given serious consideration as a possible addition to our portfolio.
*SOURCE: PERSONAL FINANCIAL PLANNING, 10TH ED., 2005, LAWRENCE J. GITMAN, MICHAEL D. JOEHNK*
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Ironically, as our world is becoming smaller, our universe of investment opportunities is growing by leaps and bounds. Consider, for example, that in 1970 the U.S. stock market accounted for fully two-thirds of the world market. In essence, our stock market was twice as big as all the rest of the world's stock markets combined. That is no longer true, for in 2002 the U.S. share of the world equity market had dropped to less than 50 percent. Today, the world equity markets are dominated by just six countries, which together account for about 80 percent of the total market. The United States, by far, has the biggest equity market, which in mid-2003 had a total market value of around $10 trillion. In a distant second place was Japan (at about one-third the size of the U.S. market), closely followed by the United Kingdom. Rounding out the list was Germany, France, and Canada.
In addition to these six, another dozen or so markets, such as Switzerland, Australia, Italy, Singapore, and Hong Kong, are also regarded as major world players---not to mention a number of relatively small, emerging markets, such as Mexico, South Korea, Thailand, and Russia. Thus, investors who continue all their investing to the U.S. markets are missing out on a big chunk of the worldwide investment opportunities. Not only that, they are missing out on some very attractive returns as well. Over the 23-year period from 1980 through 2002, the U.S. stock market provided the highest annual return just once in 1982. And that statistic pertains to just the 8 largest (major) markets of the world---it does not include the smaller (emerging) markets that, in recent years, have provided some spectacular returns. Of course, it also ignores some spectacular crashes that have occurred recently in these same emerging markets.
So if you are looking for better returns, you might want to give some thought to investing in foreign stocks. There are several different ways of doing that. Without a doubt, from the perspective of an individual investor, the best and easiest way is through international mutual funds. Mutual funds aside, you could, of course, buy securities directly in the foreign markets. Investing directly is not for the uninitiated, however. For although most major U.S. brokerage houses are set up to accommodate investors interested in buying foreign shares, many logistical problems still have to be faced. Fortunately, there is an easier way, and that is to buy foreign securities that are denominated in dollars and traded directly on U.S. exchanges. One such investment vehicle is the American Depository Receipt (ADR). ADRs are just like common stock, except that each ADR represents a specific number of shares in a specific foreign company. Indeed, the shares of more than 1,000 companies from some 50 foreign countries are traded on U.S. exchanges as ADRs, companies like Sony, Ericsson Telephone, Nokia, Vadafone Airtouch, Shanghai Petro-chemicals, and Grupo Televisa, to mention just a few. ADRs are a great way to invest in foreign stocks because they are bought and sold, on American markets, just like stocks in U.S. companies---and their prices are quoted in dollars, not British pounds, Swiss franks, or Euros. Furthermore, all dividends are paid in dollars.
Whereas the temptation to go after higher returns may be compelling, keep one thing in mind when investing in foreign stocks---that is, whether investing in foreign securities directly or through something like ADRs, the whole process of investing involves a lot more risk. That is because the behavior of foreign currency exchange rates plays a vital role in defining returns to U.S. investors. As the U.S. dollar becomes weaker (or stronger) relative to the currency in which the foreign security is denominated, the returns to U.S. investors, from investing in foreign securities will increase (or decrease) accordingly. Currency exchange rates can, in fact, have a dramatic impact on investor returns and quite often can convert mediocre returns, or even losses, into very attractive returns---and vice versa. only one thing really determines whether the impact is going to be positive or negative, and that is the behavior of the U.S. dollar relative to the currency in which the foreign security is denominated. In effect, a stronger dollar has a negative impact on total returns to U.S. investors, and a weaker dollar has a positive impact. Thus, other things being equal, the best time to be in foreign securities is when the dollar is falling, because that increases returns to U.S. investors.
*SOURCE: PERSONAL FINANCIAL PLANNING, 10TH ED., 2005, LAWRENCE J. GITMAN, MICHAEL D. JOEHNK, PGS. 515-517*
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Blue-Chip Stocks
These are the cream of the common stock crop; blue chips are stocks that are unsurpassed in quality and have a long and stable record of earnings and dividends. They are issued by large, well-established firms that have impeccable financial credentials---firms like GE, Wal-Mart, Citigroup, Microsoft, 3M Co., United Parcel Service, and Pfizer. These companies hold important, if not leading, positions in their industries and often determine the standards by which other firms are measured. Blue chips are particularly attractive to investors who seek high-quality investment outlets that offer decent dividend yields and respectable growth potential. Many use them for long-term investment purposes, and, because of their relatively low-risk exposure, as a way of obtaining modest but dependable rates of return on their investment dollars. They are popular with a large segment of the investing public, and as a result, are often relatively high priced, especially when the market is unsettled and investors become more quality conscious.
Growth Stocks
Stocks that have experienced, and are expected to continue experiencing, consistently high rates of growth in operations and earnings are known as growth stocks. A good growth stock might exhibit a sustained rate of growth in earnings of 15 to 20 percent (or more) over a period during which common stocks are averaging only 6 to 8 percent. Starbuck's, Lowe's, Medtronic, Harley-Davidson, Kohl's, and Boston Scientific are all prime examples of growth stocks. These stocks normally pay little or nothing in dividends, because the firm's rapid growth potential requires that its earnings be retained and reinvested. The high growth expectations for these stocks usually cause them to sell at relatively high P/E (price/earnings) ratios, and they typically have betas in excess of 1.0. Because of their potential for dramatic price appreciation, they appeal mostly to investors who are seeking capital gains rather than dividend income.
Tech Stocks
Over the past 10 to 15 years, tech stocks have become such a dominant force in the market that they deserve to be put in a class all their own. Tech stocks basically represent the technology sector of the market, and include all those companies that produce or provide technology-based products and services such as computers, semiconductors, data storage devices, computer software and hardware, peripherals, Internet services, content providers, networking, and wireless communications. These companies provide high-tech equipment, networking systems, and online services to all lines of businesses, schools, healthcare facilities, communications firms, governmental agencies, and home users. Although some of these stocks are listed on the NYSE and AMEX, the vast majority are traded on the Nasdaq. These stocks, in fact, dominate the Nasdaq market and as such, the Nasdaq Composite Index and other Nasdaq measures of market performance. They were the ones that were hammered especially hard during the market fall of 2000-02, when the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 80 percent. Indeed, many tech stocks fell to just pennies a share, as literally hundreds of these firms simply went out of business. But the strongest did survive, and some even thrived.
There are literally thousands of companies that fall into the tech stock category, including everything from very small firms providing some service on the Internet to huge multinational companies. These stocks would likely fall into either the growth stock category (see above) or the speculative stock class (see below), though some of them are legitimate blue chips. Although tech stocks may offer the potential for attractive (and in part anyway) are probably most suitable for the more risk-tolerant investor. Included in the tech-stock category you will find some big names, such as Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, and Dell, as well as many not-so-big names such as BEA Systems, NVIDIA, Invitrogen, KLA-Tencor, and Rambus.
Income Stocks Versus Speculative Stocks whose appeal is based primarily on the dividends they pay out are known as income stocks. they have a fairly stable stream of earnings, a large portion of which is distributed in the form of dividends. Income shares have relatively safe and high level of current income from their investment capital. An added (and often overlooked) feature of these stocks is that, unlike bonds and preferred stock, holders of income stock can expect the amount of dividends paid to increase over time. Examples of income stock include J.P. Morgan Chase, Hershey Foods, Pitney Bowes, R.R. Donnely, AT&T, Bank of America, and PPG Industries. Because of their low risk, these stocks commonly have betas (The beta of an investment indicates whether the investment is more or less volatile than the market as a whole.) of less than 1.0.
Rather than basing their investment decisions on a proven record of earnings, investors in speculative stocks gamble that some new information, discovery or production technique will favorably affect the growth of the firm and inflate the price of its stock. For example, a company whose stock is considered speculative may have recently discovered a new drug or located a valuable resource, such as oil. The value of speculative stocks and their P/E ratios tend to fluctuate widely as additional information with respect to the firm's future is received. The betas for speculative stocks are nearly always all in excess of 1.0. Investors in speculative stocks should be prepared to experience losses as well as gains, since these are high-risk securities. They include companies like P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Quicksilver, K-Swiss, Indexx Labs, Serena Software, and Dollar General.
Cyclical Stocks or Defensive Stocks
Stocks whose price investments tend to follow the business cycle are called cyclical stocks. This means that when the economy is in an expansionary stage (recovery or expansion), the prices of cyclical stocks increase, and during a contractionary stage (recession or depression), they decline. Most cyclical stocks are found in the basic industries---automobiles, steel, and lumber, for example; these industries are sensitive to changes in economic activity. Investors try to purchase cyclical stocks just prior to an expansionary phase and sell just before the contraction occurs. Because they tend to move with the market, these stocks always have positive betas. Caterpillar, Genuine Parts, Maytag Corp., Rohm & Haas, Alcoa, and Tinken are examples of cyclical stocks.
The prices and returns from defensive stocks, unlike those of cyclical stocks, are expected to remain stable during periods of contraction in business activity. For this reason, they are often called countercyclical. The shares of consumer goods companies, certain public utilities, and gold mining companies are good examples of defensive stocks. Because they are basically income stocks, their earnings and dividends tend to hold their market prices up during periods of economic decline. Betas on these stocks are quite low and occasionally even negative. Bandag, Checkpoint Systems.
Mid-Caps and Small-Caps
In the stock market, a stock's size is based on market value---or, more commonly, on what is known as its market capitalization or market cap. A stock's market cap is found by multiplying its market price by the number of shares outstanding. Generally speaking, the market can be broken into three major segments, as measured by a stock's market "cap":
Small-cap---Stocks with market caps of less than $1 billion Mid-cap---Market caps of $1 billion to $4 or $5 billion Large-cap---Market caps of more than $4 or $5 billion
In addition to these three segments, another is reserved for the really small stocks, known as micro-caps. Many of these stocks have market caps below $100 million (some as low as $10 to $15 million), and should only be used by investors who fully understand the risks involved and can tolerate such risk exposure.
Of the three major categories above, the large-cap stocks are the real biggies, the Wal-Marts, GEs, and Microsofts of the world. Many of these are considered to be blue chip stocks, and, although there are far fewer large-cap stocks than any of the other market cap categories, these companies account for about 80 to 90 percent of the total value of all U.S. equity markets. Just because they are big, however, does not mean they are better. Indeed, both the small- and mid-cap segments of the market tend to hold their own with, or even outperform, large stocks over time.
Mid-cap stocks are a special breed unto themselves and offer investors some very attractive return opportunities. They provide much of the sizzle of small-stock returns, but without all the price volatility. At the same time, because they are fairly good-sized companies, and many of them have been around for a long time, they offer some of the safety of the big, established stocks. Among the ranks of the mid-caps are such well-known companies as Tootsie Roll, Wendy's International, Barnes & Noble, PetSmart, and the Cheesecake Factory, in addition to some not-so-well-known names. For the most part, although these securities offer a nice alternative to large stocks without all the drawbacks and uncertainty of small-caps, they probably are most appropriate for investors who are willing to tolerate a bit more risk and price volatility.
Some investors consider small companies to be in a class by themselves. They believe these firms stocks hold especially attractive return opportunities, which in many cases, has turned out to be true. Known as small-cap stocks, these companies generally have annual revenues of less than $250 million, and, because of their size, spurts of growth can have dramatic effects on their earnings and stock prices. Green Mountain Power, Hancock Fabrics, Hot Topic, JoAnn Stores, and Sonic Corp. are just some of the better known small-cap stocks. Now although some small-caps (like Sonic, for example) are solid companies with eaqually solid financials, that is definitely not the case with most of them. Indeed, because many of these companies are so small, they do not have a lot of stock outstanding, and their shares are not widely traded. In addition, small company stocks have a tendency to be "here today gone tomorrow." Although some of these stocks may hold the potential for high returns, investors should also be aware of the very high risk exposure that comes with many of them.
*SOURCE: PERSONAL FINANCIAL PLANNING, 10TH ED., 2005, LAWRENCE J. GITMAN, MICHAEL D. JOEHNK, PGS. 513-515*
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